Officer Risk by Assignment

By looking at Officer assignment, I am attempting to find a correlation between specific duties and risk.  During the analysis of the 2007 FBI Crime Statistics (Uniform Crime Reports), I made a discovery.  Before we get to the unexpected, let’s cover the exected.

Here’s the breakdown of LEOs feloniously killed during 2007:

• 57 LEOs killed
• 2-Officer Vehicle – 2 (4%)
• 1-Officer Vehicle, Alone – 14 (25%)
• 1-Officer Vehicle, Assisted – 24 (42%)
• Foot Patrol, Alone – 0 (0%)
• Foot Patrol, Assisted – 0 (0%)
• Other (Detectives, Undercover, etc), Alone – 2 (4%)
• Other (Detectives, Undercover, etc), Assisted - 9 (16%)
• Off Duty – 6 (11%)

Take a moment and look at the data again.  Anything jump out at you?  I’ll get to it shortly.

One tidbit is that over the past ten years only 5 LEOs were killed while walking the beat (that’s less than 1%!).  I don’t know how many departments still routinely condct foot patrols anymore, but it certainly appears safer than most other assignments.  Plus, it’ll keep you in shape.

But other than that semi-interesting nugget, there wasn’t anything ground breaking in regards to assignement.  However, if you look at the number of LEO’s who were assisted at the time of death (meaning another LEO was on the scene) you will account for 35 of the 57.

Intuitively, I would have thought that officers would be killed more often when they were alone.  Why would it would be the opposite?  From previous analysis, we know that more officers were killed during Arrest situations than any other.  LEO’s will routinely call for assistance during these encounters which may account for some of the answer.

I’ll submit that the arrival of an assisting officer doesn’t cause violent assault, but the data shows that it absolutely doesn’t prevent it either.  Officers need to condition themselves to prepare for violent encounters regardless of how much backup is around.  The tendency is to lower your guard when you have help on scene.  You relax, believing that with the presence of additional Law Enforcement, the subject will be more apt to comply with your commands.

Simply not true.  Last year, 61% of LEOs killed had assistance on-scene…and died anyway.  To enhance survival, LEOs must focus on the threat and maintain unwavering situational awareness.  Failure to do so is quite literally fatal.  Not only are you jeopardizing yourself, but everyone around you.

Mindset is one of the fundamentals, along with marksmanship and training.  None of these can be ignored.  In my mind, proper training for officers must include working with other LEOs on scene.  With perfect training it will be easier for LEOs to remain switched on to the scene and their backup.  And again, this training should be primarily focused on low-light, no-light situations.  Amateurs train standing in the sunshine, professionals train at night in adverse weather.

Please contact info@jedburgh-usa.com to give feedback on the blog, or to discuss training needs.  Also, feel free to post your comments.

LEO Victim Experience

Today, I want to examine officer victims experience level to determine if certain LEOs are in a higher risk category than others.  I’m hamstrung today just as I was yesterday.  What I CAN tell you is the percentage of assaults on one type of officer versus another.  Unfortunately, I’m not able to determine what percentage one type of officer is to the total population of LEOs.  Ok, enough whining from me.

Are rookies in greater danger than experienced LEOs?  Absolutely not.  LEOs with less than 1 year of experience make up a measly 3.5% in 2007 and less than 3% over the last ten years.  During two years (2002 & 2006) there were zero LEOs with less than a year of experience feloniously killed.  Stick with me and we’ll try to make sense of this together.

Who’s in the greatest risk?  LEOs with 1-5 years of experience were assaulted and killed more than any other category, followed closely by LEOs with 6-10 years experience (and they were tied in 2007).  Officers with 1-5 years of experience account for 30% of all LEOs killed in 2007 and 34% during the last ten years.  Officers with 6-10 years of experience also account for 30% in 2007 and 25% over the last ten years.  In fact during the last ten years, the average experience level of ALL 549 LEOs killed was 10 years of LEO experience.

For the sake of completeness, here is the breakdown of all the data:

• Less than 1 year of experience – 3.5% (2007)
• 1-5 years of experience – 30%
• 6-10 years of experience – 30%
• 11-15 years of experience – 12%
• 16-20 years of experience – 11%
• 21-25 years of experience – 9%
• 26-30 years of experience – 5%

Conclusions?  Well, one possible scenario is that most officers employed by LEO departments nationwide have an average of ten years experience, which explains why the average LEO feloniously killed also has ten years experience.

But lets not stop our analysis there.  Common sense (and most veteran LEOs) would submit that a rookie is in greater danger than more experienced LEOs.  Why don’t they account for a higher percentage of fatalities?  Try this on.  Rookies are straight out of the academy and have their training fresh in their minds.  They haven’t learned any bad habits from laziness or complacency.  They’re younger and in better shape than other LEOs.

Now before anyone gets all butt-hurt because you think I’m calling you out of shape, let me give you another statistic.  The average LEO killed in 2007 was 5′11″ tall and weighed 197 pounds.  That’s a Body Mass Index (BMI) of over 27.  Anything over 25 is considered overweight.  It may hurt some feelings, but there is volumes of research that prove that subjects with good fitness levels outperform over-weight/out of shape subjects in stressful situations.

Besides the over-weight factor, the data seems to indicate some reason for officers with years of LEO experience being assaulted and killed more than twice as often as others.  The root cause may be hard to accept, but it’s still the truth.

Lack of training, lack of focus (warrior mindset), and complacency.  LEOs with a few years on the job have gained enough “experience” to make them believe that they have a firm understanding of their duties, and then they get bored, get distracted, get lazy.  They stop respecting the inherent danger of their job, and this lack of respect causes them to cut corners both in training and on the street.

To prevent skills atrophy, LEOs in the 1-5 and 6-10 year categories should be prioritized for refresher skills training with a focus on fundamental skills.  Sexy doesn’t win gunfights.  Your LEOs should be the absolute best at doing the little things right.  Weapons handling, marksmanship, use of force, and mindset will keep you alive.  And a solid PT program keeps sand outta your gears.

Departments should weigh the benefit of spending money for new widgets for their carbines, or spending money on training and having an LEO who is an expert with the weapons they currently employ.  As we continue to analyze LEO deaths in 2007, none of the deaths would have been avoided with cooler gear, but almost all of them could have been prevented with solid fundamental skills training.

Please contact info@jedburgh-usa.com to give feedback on the blog or to discuss training needs.  Also feel free to post your comments.

Scene / Circumstance of Incident

Based on the data from the 2007 FBI Crime Statistics, there are activities that resulted in a large portion of LEOs being assaulted and killed.  Before we go too far, I need to point out the problem with today’s analysis.  The data I have lists the circumstances during the assault so I can establish how often a LEO will be assaulted compared to other activities.  What is NOT listed is how often the LEO performs these duties compared to other activities.  Let me give you an example:

• In 2007 5 LEOs out of 57 were feloniously killed during a disturbance call
• We can accurately say that LEOs killed during disturbance calls represented 9% of all LEOs killed during 2007

The problem is that we don’t know how often an LEO is called to a disturbance call.  If disturbance calls represent 50% of all the calls received, then disturbance calls are a low-risk event.  If disturbance calls represent 2% of all calls, then these calls represent a high-risk event.  We are limited in this case due to no-data.

Despite this shortcoming, it is obvious that certain activities present more risk for LEOs than others.  The activities resulting in most LEO deaths during the last ten years (and tied for the most in 2007) were arrest situations.  The FBI further breaks these activities down into burglary/burglary in progress, robbery/robbery in progress, drug-related matter, and attempting other arrest.  Here’s what it looks like:

     In 2007:

• 1 LEO killed during burglary call (11 last ten years)
• 6 LEO killed during robbery call (39 last ten years)
• 1 LEO killed during drug-relater matter (27 during last ten years)
• 8 LEO killed during other arrest attempt (50 during last ten years)

In all, arrest situations accounted for 28% of LEO deaths in 2007 and 23% during the last ten years.

The next activity are ambush situations, which are further categorized as entrapment/premeditation, and unprovoked attacks. 

     In 2007:

• 9 LEO killed during entrapment/premeditation (43 during the last ten years)
• 7 LEO killed during unprovoked attacks (67 during the last ten years)

Ambush situations also represented 28% during 2007, but was a slightly lower 20% over the last ten years.

Other circumstances (ranked in order-2007 data):

• Traffic pursuit/stop – 19%
• Disturbance call – 9%
• Investigating suspicion person/circumstance – 7%
• Tactical situation – 5%
• Investigative activity – 2%
• Handling/transporting/custody of prisoner – 2%
• Handling person with mental illness – 0% (2% last ten years)
• Civil disorder – 0% (0% last ten years)

The takeaways are pretty simple.  When operating with limited time, resources, and energy focus your training time on Arrest and Ambush situations.  Over the last ten years, nearly 60% of all LEOs killed were in these circumstances. 

“I have but one lamp by which my feet are guided, and that is the lamp of experience. I know no way of judging of the future but by the past.” – Edward Gibbon (author of The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire)

Let your feet be guided by the lamp of experience.  It is held by your fallen brothers and was paid for in blood.

Please contact info@jedburgh-usa.com to give feedback on the blog, or to discuss training needs.  Also, feel free to post your comments.

LEO Felony assaults – When do they occur?

Just a reminder that the data used for this analysis is provided by the FBI at their Uniform Crime Reports website.  The link is available on this page.

Other than time of day, what other factors of time have a correlation to felony assaults on LEOs?  There are two actually, day of week, and month of year.  Using data from the last ten years (1998 – 2007) felony assaults against LEOs has a high standard deviation and a low predictability.  What that means is that you can’t use this years data to predict next years results.  However, there are three “bumps” in the data during the months of March, May, and August.  I’m calling them bumps because over the last ten years felony assaults during these three months are slightly higher than the average.  Here’s the breakdown:

• 549 assaults against LEOs (resulting in LEO death) between 1998 and 2007
• 45.8 assaults per month (average) over the same period
• 54 assaults in March over the last ten years
• 53 assaults in May over the last ten years
• 61 assaults in August over the last ten years

Again, time of year is not a great predictor of future behavior, but it does show some increase in violence during spring time (March and May), and then the largest increase as summer winds down in August.  Unfortunately the data doesn’t give LEOs any months “off” during the year.

More significant than time of year is day of week.  Over 49% of all felony assaults on LEOs occur on Thursday, Friday and Saturday (with Thursday and Friday being the most deadly by far).  For professional LEOs, this is a blinding flash of the obvious.  People tend to eat, drink, and be merry on weekend nights (and somehow Thursday has become a pre-weekend drinking occasion).  Wednesday is the next highest average, presumably because people are pre-pre-drinking for the weekend.

Combining the first two data sets, I can state with certainty that the most dangerous time for LEOs is between 6pm and 2am on Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights.  Training time and resources need to be directed at officers on shift during these times.  Again, training MUST be conducted during low-light and no-light situations.  The data proves that bad guys are killing LEOs at night.

Please contact info@jedburgh-usa.com to give feedback on the blog, or to discuss training needs.  Also, feel free to post your comments.

FBI Crime Statistics (Uniform Crime Reports)

All of the information for the next few entries come from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and is available on-line at their website: http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/ucr.htm. 

Let me give you my initial thoughts.  Any attempt to conduct analysis based solely on statistical data is dangerous.  I don’t have access to official reports other than what is listed with the FBI.  If there is any dispute about the conclusions I draw, please contact me so we can reconcile it.  Also, if there are any Law Enforcement Officers who have access to the raw data, I’d love to go over it and improved the fidelity of our study.  That said, let’s look at an overview of LEOs were assaulted and killed in 2007.

57 LEO were killed in 51 incidents in 25 states and Puerto Rico.  9 LEOs were killed in Texas (the most of any state).  The average age of LEOs killed was 37 years and the average law enforcement experience was 10 years.  What can we draw from this?  Well the averages are just that….average.  It appears that “rookies” are just as often to be feloniously killed as a LEO with 20 years experience…on average. 

What about time of day?  It will come as no surprise to many of you that most assaults occur in the evening hours.  Almost half, 46.5% of ALL assaults occur between 4pm and midnight.  The FBI uses midnight as the break between days.  Cops know that this isn’t necessarily the case.  If you look at the 8 hour period occuring from 6pm to 2am, you can account for over 49% of felony assaults that resulted in a LEO killed.  That’s half the deadly assaults in one 8 hour shift.

Midnight to 2am was the most dangerous period, with 12 of the 57 officers killed during this timeframe.  The only period with zero deaths, was 4am to 6am…hey, criminals need sleep too. 

Lets talk about what we do with this information.  Sure, it’s kinda cool to look at it but who really cares?  How does it affect me and the department?  The first thing to understand is that LEOs are in danger of being assaulted and killed throughout the day.  The other (most important) thing to take away is also the most simple.  LEOs are killed most often during evening twilight, and night time hours.  If you aren’t conducting training during these hours, you’re unnecessarily placing your officers at risk.  Let me say it another way.  Bad guys are killing cops at night, so cops should be training to fire their weapons at night.  Low-light and no-light techniques need to be discussed and tactics perfected.  Daylight “square range” training has a place for building foundational skills for a shooter.  In fact, it’s the preferred time and venue for teaching new skills.  Nighttime engagements are when you put the pieces together and become true professionals. 

Start conducting your annual or semi-annual qualifications at night.  If an officer can pass at night, he can pass during the day.  All it means is that the rangemaster / instructor has to alter their schedule to meet the true training needs of their LEOs.  Small price to pay.

Please contact info@jedburgh-usa.com for feedback on the blog or discuss training needs.  Also, feel free to post your comments.

Understanding Lethal Force Encounters

Nowadays, if you attend any sort of firearms or self-defense training the subject of mindset will invariably be raised. Typically, the instructor will recount COL Jeff Cooper’s Color Codes and then commence a sort of rah-rah speech designed to momentarily raise your motivation, but cause no long term change in behavior or attitudes. It’s the equivalent of eating a Krispy Kreme donut…tastes good, but lacks the substance to properly fuel the mind or body.

To begin, let’s talk about the fundamentals. Having the mindset to survive a (potentially) lethal encounter stems from an understanding that there are people who want to hurt you and your family AND understanding that the government cannot possibly provide enough laws, law enforcement officers, or prisons to adequately protect you. I’ve met people who acknowledge these truths, who nonetheless say that regardless of the consequences, they will not resist. Simply put, these people will be killed if their assailant so chooses.

The purpose of this blog is to provide analysis of lethal force situations that are encountered by both citizens and law enforcement officers. We’ll begin our study by digging into the FBI’s crime statistics from 2007. The preliminary goal is find and understand correlations during encounters which resulted in the death of a law enforcement officer. The ultimate goal is to understand how our training methodology must prepare us for the realities of the job.